Texas U.S. Senate · 12 days to Election Day

Talarico vs. Paxton: who’s ahead in the polls?

James Talarico is ahead, and Ken Paxton knows it. Talarico leads by about 2.5 points in the polling average and in 10 of the 12 October polls we checked. Paxton has led exactly one. It’s still inside the margin of error, so the only poll that counts is the one you vote in.

Updated Oct. 22, 2026 · Every number links to its source

A tug-of-war between Paxton and Talarico A rope stretched across a field with a points scale from Paxton plus 8 on the left to Talarico plus 8 on the right. The flag tied at the rope's middle sits at Talarico plus 2.5, the polling average, inside a shaded toss-up zone that runs from 3 points either way. Paxton Talarico TOSS-UP ZONE ±3 8642 0 2468 ← PAXTON AHEAD TALARICO AHEAD → AVG +2.5
The flag marks the polling average: Talarico 49.0%, Paxton 46.5% (FiftyPlusOne, Oct. 22). 270toWin’s average: Talarico +1.6. A lead under 3 points is within the margin of error of every poll below.

28 polls since September. Paxton has led one.

One dot per poll. Right of center, Talarico leads; left, Paxton leads. Tap a dot for details.

  • Talarico ahead
  • Paxton ahead
  • Tied
  • Toss-up zone (±3)
  • Polling average

Headline numbers, likely voters unless noted. We list polls whose numbers we could confirm on the pollster’s own release or in two or more independent reports; a few others in public averages (Quantus, Pulse, Stratus, SoCal Strategies) are left out. A poll’s margin of error (±2 to 5 points here) applies to each candidate’s share; the error on the gap between them is larger. Party labels follow the UT Texas Politics Project tracker.

All 28 polls in a table
T = Talarico, P = Paxton. LV = likely voters, RV = registered voters. Pollster names link to the release.
PollsterField datesSampleTalaricoPaxtonMargin
ActiVoteOct. 17–21400 LV5149T+2
Emerson CollegeWithout leaners; 49–48 withOct. 17–191,000 LV4846T+2
Fox NewsRV: 52–46 TalaricoOct. 15–191,398 LV4949Tie
CBS News/YouGovOct. 8–16LV5149T+2
InsiderAdvantageOct. 13–141,200 LV4849P+1
UH Hobby SchoolOct. 10–142,000 LV4846T+2
GS Strategy (R) / New River (D)For Cook Political ReportOct. 9–13934 LV4944T+5
MaristRV: 48–44 TalaricoOct. 8–11LV4745T+2
Trafalgar Group (R)Oct. 6–81,086 LV47.143.6T+3.5
ReconMROct. 5–8617 LV4844T+4
YouGovSept. 28–Oct. 53,625 LV5044T+6
UT / Texas Politics ProjectSept. 25–Oct. 5861 LV5047T+3
New York Times/SienaSome trackers list 49–43Sept. 21–30615 LV5145T+6
Rasmussen ReportsPage lists two field datesSept. 22–291,115 LV4645T+1
Fox NewsSept. 24–28881 LV5149T+2
Guidant Polling (R)Sept. 20–28800 LV46.644.2T+2.4
UMass Lowell/YouGovSept. 18–28850 LV4545Tie
Big Data PollWith leanersSept. 24–26698 LV46.844.9T+1.9
Texas Public Opinion ResearchSept. 19–221,007 LV4944T+5
MaristSept. 17–201,139 RV5044T+6
Texas Southern UniversitySept. 15–191,800 LV4746T+1
Trafalgar Group (R)Sept. 15–171,079 LV46.445.2T+1.2
Emerson CollegeSept. 12–141,000 LV4746T+1
ReconMRSept. 8–11614 LV4943T+6
Mason-DixonFor NBC5 Dallas / TelemundoSept. 8–10625 LV4643T+3
InsiderAdvantageSept. 8–91,200 LV4746T+1
Univision/YouGovAug. 27–Sept. 41,000 RV4843T+5
Fabrizio Ward (R) / Impact (D)For AARPAug. 30–Sept. 1895 LV4844T+4

Ahead isn’t won. Turnout decides it.

“When we did that convention, it dropped our numbers… Right now? Yeah, it’s not good.”

Ken Paxton, in leaked audio from a private D.C. fundraiser (HPPR). Republicans are worried he could be the first Texas Republican in nearly four decades to lose a Senate race (AP).
Hear it in his own voice. KHOU 11 plays the audio, first reported by The New York Times. His campaign called it “manipulated nonsense.” Paxton told Fox News he’s “not worried.” KHOU 11 ↗
  • Oct. 19–30Early voting, in personCheck your county’s hours
  • Oct. 23Mail-ballot applications dueMust be received, not postmarked
  • Nov. 3Election DayTuesday

Texans are already voting, in record numbers. Harris County cast more than 104,000 in-person ballots on the first day of early voting, beating its old first-day record of 63,188 from 2018 (Fox 7 Austin, Every State). Dallas County cast 76,079 and Tarrant County 50,409 (NBC DFW).

Vote early: Oct. 19–30 →

Quick answers

Who is winning the Texas Senate race, Talarico or Paxton?

James Talarico. He leads Ken Paxton in every polling average we checked: 49.0% to 46.5% in FiftyPlusOne and 49.3% to 47.7% in 270toWin as of Oct. 22. He’s ahead in 10 of 12 October polls, and Paxton has led only one poll since September. The lead is inside the margin of error, so it isn’t won yet: early voting runs through Oct. 30.

What do the latest Talarico vs. Paxton polls say?

Talarico keeps leading. Emerson College (Oct. 17–19): Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%. ActiVote (Oct. 17–21): Talarico 51–49. UH Hobby School (Oct. 10–14): Talarico 48–46. Fox News (Oct. 15–19) had likely voters tied 49–49 and Talarico up 52–46 among registered voters. Of the 12 October polls we verified at the source, Talarico led 10. Paxton led one (InsiderAdvantage, by a single point).

What do Kalshi and Polymarket say about Talarico vs. Paxton?

Bettors favor Talarico. On the afternoon of Oct. 22, contracts paying $1 if Talarico wins traded around 67 to 68 cents on both Kalshi and Polymarket, roughly a two-in-three chance. Prices move by the hour, though, and the only count that matters is the one on Nov. 3.

Can James Talarico beat Ken Paxton?

Yes, and he’s on track to. He leads in the polling averages and in most polls, and both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race to toss-up this summer. Republicans are worried Paxton could be the first Texas Republican in nearly four decades to lose a Senate race (AP). The margin is close enough that turnout decides it.

When is the Talarico vs. Paxton election, and when is early voting?

You can vote right now. Early voting in person runs Oct. 19 through Oct. 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Applications for a mail ballot must be received by Friday, Oct. 23 (Texas Secretary of State). Find your polling place at VoteTexas.gov.

Read the polls yourself